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Predicting remaining useful life using spectral normalized LSTM encoder and Gaussian processes
University of Skövde, School of Informatics.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is the measure of the expected functional duration of the certain component or system (Liu et al., 2020). This measure is used in several application fields, such as industrial equipment, as in the case of this work. An accurate prediction of RUL is of high interest, since it can improve the decision-making in these areas, optimize costs and ensure safety in critical applications. To improve the reliability of the predictions, some works highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty to the estimation of RUL. In this project a deep model based on a Long Short-Term Memory combined with a Variational Gaussian Process regression was used for the prediction of RUL of CMAPSS dataset (Saxena et al., 2008) aerospacial engines, as well as its related uncertainty. The performance of the model was assessed against benchmark literature works that followed similar processes. Although the performance of the model for both point prediction and uncertainty assessment is worse than common benchmark metrics, it still offers competent results in the low RUL region. We state that this performance might be improved by applying self-Attention mechanisms to the encoder architecture, as well as considering uncertainty prediction in both stages of training (LSTM and GP).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 55
Keywords [en]
Remaining useful life, LSTM encoder, variational Gaussian processes, CMAPSS, uncertainty
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-25568OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-25568DiVA, id: diva2:1985356
Subject / course
Informationsteknologi
Educational program
Data Science - Master’s Programme
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-07-23 Created: 2025-07-23 Last updated: 2025-09-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • apa-cv
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf