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A survivability model can be a useful component of a tactical support system able to aid fighter pilots to assess the risk of getting hit by enemy fire from ground-based threats. This work identifies three desirable properties of such a model: it should allow for evaluating actions; it should enable domain experts to incorporate their knowledge; and it should represent uncertainties both regarding the locations of the threats as well as their future actions. A survivability model issuggested, which calculates the probability that the aircraft can fly a route unharmed and allows for routes of different lengths to be compared. A domain expert can describe the threats by specifying the risk of getting hit at a position of the route without having to consider the earlier actions of the aircraft and the threats. Three different threat models are suggested and compared. The influence of uncertainties regarding the positions of the threats is studied by calculating the probability density function for the survivability. Different representations that take into account both the uncertainty regarding the present and future situation are discussed. The results indicate that the suggested survivability model could be a useful component of a future tactical support system, even though some further development is needed.

Aircraft flying in hostile environments are exposed to ground-based air defense systems. It is not always possible to both accomplish the mission and fly outside the range of the enemy's weapon systems, especially if the positions of the enemy's systems are not perfectly known. Automatic evaluation of mission routes from a combat survival perspective could therefore aid the pilots to plan their missions. When updated information regarding the positions and capabilities of the enemy's systems is received during flight, the route could be re-evaluated and the mission could be re-planed or aborted if it is assessed to be too dangerous. The survivability model presented here describes the relation between the aircraft and the enemy's defense systems. It calculates the probabilities that the aircraft is in certain modes along the route, e.g., undetected, tracked or hit. Contrary to previous work, the model is able to capture that the enemy's systems can communicate and that the enemy must track the aircraft before firing a weapon. The survivability model is used to calculate an expected cost for the mission route. The expected cost has the attractive properties of summarizing the route into a single value and is able to take the pilot's risk attitude for the mission into account. The evaluation of the route is influenced by uncertainty regarding the locations of the enemy's sensors and weapons. Monte Carlo simulations are used to capture this uncertainty by calculating the mean and standard deviation for the expected cost. These two parameters give the pilots an assessment of the danger associated with the route as well as the reliability of this assessment. The paper concludes that evaluating routes with the survivability model and the expected cost could aid the pilots to plan and execute their missions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An aircraft flying inside hostile territory is exposed to the risk of getting detected and tracked by the enemy’s sensors,  and  subsequently  hit  by  its  weapons.  This paper  describes  a  combat  survivability  model  that can be used for assessing the risks associated with a mission route. In contrast to previous work, the model describes both the risk of getting tracked and the risk of getting hit, as well as the dependency between these risks.  Three  different  ways  of  using  the  model  for comparing routes from a combat survival perspective are  suggested.  The  survivability  for  the  end  point, i.e., the probability of flying the entire route without getting hit, is a compact way of summarizing the risks. Visualizing  how  the  risks  vary  along  the  route  can be  used  for  identifying  critical  parts  of  the  mission. Finally, assigning weights to different risks allow the opportunity to take preferences regarding risk exposure into account.

The aim of situation analysis is to assess the relevant objects in the surroundings and interpret their relations and their impact in order for a decision maker to achieve situation awareness and be able to make suitable decisions. However, the information regarding the relevant objects is typically uncertain, which will induce uncertainty in the result from the situation analysis. If the kinematic states of the objects are estimated with a tracking filter, the estimates can be considered as random variables. Furthermore, the situation analysis algorithm is a function of these estimates entailing that the result from the situation analysis is random variable. This paper studies the fighter aircraft domain and a situation analysis algorithm that calculates the combat survivability, i.e., the probability that the aircraft can a fly a route inside hostile territory without getting hit by enemy fire. The survivability of different routes can be compared in order to decide where to fly. However, the uncertainties regarding the threats' positions imply that the survivability is uncertain and can be desribed as a random variable with a distribution. The unscented transform (UT) is here used for calculating the mean and standard deviation (std) of the survivability in a few scenarios with threats located on the ground. Simulations show that the position uncertainties affect both the mean and std of the survivability and that UT gives similar estimates as a Monte Carlo (MC) approach. UT therefore seems to be a promising approach for calculating the uncertainty in the survivability, which is more computational efficient than MC.

Military organizations have a long history of using simulations, role-play, and games for training. This also encompasses good practices concerning how instructors utilize games and gaming behavior. Unfortunately, the work of instructors is rarely described explicitly in research relating to serious gaming. Decision makers also tend to have overconfidence in the pedagogical power of games and simulations, particularly where the instructor is taken out of the gaming loop. The authors propose a framework, the coaching cycle, that focuses on the roles of instructors. The roles include instructors acting as game players. The fact that the instructors take a more active part in all training activities will further improve learning. The coaching cycle integrates theories of experiential learning (where action precedes theory) and deliberate practice (where the trainee's skill is constantly challenged by a coach). Incorporating a coaching-by-gaming perspective complicates, but also strengthens, the player-centered design approach to game development in that we need to take into account two different types of players: trainees and instructor. Furthermore, the authors argue that the coaching cycle allows for a shift of focus to a more thorough debriefing, because it implies that learning of theoretical material before simulation/game playing is kept to a minimum. This shift will increase the transfer of knowledge.

A fighter aircraft flying a mission is often exposed to ground-based threats such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites. The fighter pilot needs to take actions to minimize the risk of being shot down, but at the same time be able to accomplish the mission. In this paper we propose a survivability model, which describes the probability that the aircraft will be able to fly a given route without being hit by incoming missiles. Input to this model can consist of sensor measurements collected during flight as well as intelligence data gathered before the mission. This input is by nature uncertain and we therefore investigate the influence of uncertainty in the input to the model. Finally we propose a number of decision support functions that can be developed based on the suggested model such as countermeasure management, mission planning and sensor management.

Military missions in the 21st century are characterized by combinations of traditional symmetric conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and operations other than war. The inherent uncertainty in an actual mission and the variety of potential organizations (e.g. multi-agency, non-governmental, private volunteer, international, international corporations) from several countries that support the mission makes collaboration and co-ordination a key capability for command and control. The ability to communicate and automatically process intent and effects is vital in order for a commander to cooperate with other organizations and agencies and lead subordinates in such a way that the overall mission is completed in the best possible way, including exploitation of fleeting opportunities, i.e. enable for self-synchronization amongst teams and allow for subordinate initiatives. However, intent and effects are often absent in the current and forthcoming digitalized information models, and if intent and effects are present it is likely to be found that the representations are made as free-text fields based on natural language. However, such messages are very difficult to disambiguate, particularly for automated machine systems. The overall objective for the Operations Intent and Effects Model is to support operational and simulated systems by a conceptual intent and effects model and a formalism that is human and machine interpretable.

When flying a mission, a fighter pilot is exposed to the risk of being hit by enemy fire. A tactical support system can aid the pilot by calculating the survivability of a given route, which is the probability that the fighter pilot can fly the route with-out being hit. The survivability estimate will be uncertain due to uncertainty in the information about threats in the area. In this paper, we investigate the uncertainty in the estimate of the survivability and compare two different measures of uncertainty; standard deviation and entropy. Furthermore, we discuss how these measures can be used for sensor management and discuss a few issues that need to be addressed in the design of a sensor management system in a fighter aircraft.