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  • 1.
    Kotta, Jonne
    et al.
    Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Tallinn, Estonia.
    Vanhatalo, Jarno
    Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
    Jänes, Holger
    Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Tallinn, Estonia / Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
    Orav-Kotta, Helen
    Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Tallinn, Estonia.
    Rugiu, Luca
    Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
    Jormalainen, Veijo
    Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
    Bobsien, Ivo
    GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
    Viitasalo, Markku
    Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    Virtanen, Elina
    Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    Nyström Sandman, Antonia
    AquaBiota Water Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Isaeus, Martin
    AquaBiota Water Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Leidenberger, Sonja
    University of Skövde, School of Bioscience. University of Skövde, The Systems Biology Research Centre.
    Jonsson, Per R.
    Department of Marine Sciences – Tjärnö, University of Gothenburg, Tjärnö, Strömstad, Sweden.
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Department of Marine Sciences – Tjärnö, University of Gothenburg, Tjärnö, Strömstad, Sweden.
    Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns2019In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 9, article id 1821Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

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