Högskolan i Skövde

The aim of this article is to identify which economic model is applied in Eritrea. The government claims to follow the market economy model(s), however, the actual practice seems to be different and casts doubts on the government's commitment to market economy. Against this background, the author has examined Eritrea's economic development model. Confirming to his doubts, the author found out that the government is applying a militarist command economy model, however, in an improperly planned, poorly coordinated and extremely mismanaged approach, with its serious negative impacts on the economic, social, cultural, diplomatic and political conditions in the country.

The focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of corporate ownership structure on the overall performance of stock exchanges. This study distinguishes in particular mutual versus demutualized ownership. London Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange are chosen as study cases, because London Stock Exchange is one of the world leading stock exchanges and Hong Kong Stock Exchange is definitely one of the most important emerging market stock exchanges. That is why the results obtained by comparing these two stock exchanges could serve as good indicator in understanding the effects of demutualization process on the whole stock exchange sector and retain the subtle differences in micro-behavior of the stock exchanges undergone the same transformation.

In this paper the simple descriptive statistics is used as the method of analysis, in association to a profound review of the literature in this area. The data illuminate the fact that demutualized stock exchanges hold a stronger operating performance and a better performance in term of shareholder’s return than mutual exchanges. The result is generally in line with the basic theories in the area of corporate governance and empirical studies in this specific area like Aggarwal (2006), Mendiola and O’Hara (2003) and Hart and Moore (1996).

This paper introduces the concept of Temporal Hierarchies for time series forecasting. A temporal hierarchy can be constructed for any time series by means of non-overlapping temporal aggregation. Predictions constructed at all aggregation levels are combined with the proposed framework to result in temporally reconciled, accurate and robust forecasts. The implied combination mitigates modelling uncertainty, while the reconciled nature of the forecasts results in a unified prediction that supports aligned decisions at different planning horizons: from short-term operational up to long-term strategic planning. The proposed methodology is independent of forecasting models. It can embed high level managerial forecasts that incorporate complex and unstructured information with lower level statistical forecasts. Our results show that forecasting with temporal hierarchies increases accuracy over conventional forecasting, particularly under increased modelling uncertainty. We discuss organisational implications of the temporally reconciled forecasts using a case study of Accident & Emergency departments. 

Inventory control systems rely on accurate and robust forecasts of future demand to support decisions such as setting of safety stocks. The combination of multiple forecasts is shown to be effective not only in reducing forecast errors, but also in being less sensitive to limitations of a single model. Research on forecast combination has primarily focused on improving accuracy, largely ignoring the overall shape and distribution of forecast errors. Nonetheless, these are essential for managing the level of aversion to risk and uncertainty for companies. This study examines the forecast error distributions of base and combination forecasts and their implications for inventory performance. It explores whether forecast combinations transform the forecast error distribution towards desired properties for safety stock calculations, typically based on the assumption of normally distributed errors and unbiased forecasts. In addition, it considers the similarity between in- and out-of-sample characteristics of such errors and the impact of different lead times. The effects of established combination methods are explored empirically using a representative set of forecasting methods and a dataset of 229 weekly demand series from a leading household and personal care UK manufacturer. Findings suggest that forecast combinations make the in- and out-of-sample behaviour more consistent, requiring less safety stock on average than base forecasts. Furthermore we find that using in-sample empirical error distributions of combined forecasts approximates well the out-of-sample ones, in contrast to base forecasts. 

A major challenge in automating the production of a large number of forecasts, as often required in many business applications, is the need for robust and reliable predictions. Increased noise, outliers and structural changes in the series, all too common in practice, can severely affect the quality of forecasting. We investigate ways to increase the reliability of exponential smoothing forecasts, the most widely used family of forecasting models in business forecasting. We consider two alternative sets of approaches, one stemming from statistics and one from machine learning. To this end, we adapt M-estimators, boosting and inverse boosting to parameter estimation for exponential smoothing.  We propose appropriate modifications that are necessary for time series forecasting while aiming to obtain scalable algorithms. We evaluate the various estimation methods using multiple real datasets and find that several approaches outperform the widely used maximum likelihood estimation. The novelty of this work lies in (1) demonstrating the usefulness of M-estimators, (2) and of inverse boosting, which outperforms standard boosting approaches, and (3) a comparative look at statistics versus machine learning inspired approaches.

Although there is a considerable evidence on the link between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in developing countries, the causal relationship of these two variables still remains an important question. This study attempts to examine the possible causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in Turkey, during the period 1992 (Quarter 2) – 2006 (Quarter 3). We employed the Johansen Cointegration and Granger Causality tests for detecting the long run or short run causality. Our results showed that there is no long run relationship between the variables, which led us to search the causality in the short run. However we couldn’t find any evidence for a causality running from FDI to economic growth or economic growth to FDI in Turkey.

This study examines the relationship between stock prices and accounting figures, primarily the book value of equity and earnings, as well as the market perception of accounting choices implemented by

companies. Market event studies from late sixties have initiated numerous of researches, and the majority of contemporary results were consistent with strong belief in the market efficiency theory. The

book value of equity and earnings have been proved to have the highest explanatory power of future stock prices. Other accounting-related issues, like inventory methods or accounting for business combination, were proven to have reliable impact on the stock prices. Moreover, the cash flow implications triggered by the accounting change are not an indispensable condition to influence the stock price level. Although a great body of research has treated the relationship between accounting

choices and stock prices, a clear-cut mechanism is not well specified. The evidence is inconsistent, and the consequences of accounting change are difficult to measure. However, the accounting figures

included in financial statements remain the most important measure of the companies’ performance. Due to the economic and technical progress, which considerably modified the structure of companies

and the environment in which they operate, further studies are advisable in order to maintain the reliability of accounting figures on significant level.

The aim of this study is to map the process involved in terminating a long-standing business relationship in a public context. It employed an exploratory study to interview 35 politicians, senior- and middle managers, ambulance- and dispatch centre staff and representatives of a regional alliance of patients. Growing criticism from a county council towards a contractor ended in a decision to bring services back in-house. However, terminating the contract failed and instead a state of quasi-backsourcing emerged. Only parts of the services were taken back in-house, with few reported benefits. The study suggests that caution is needed in relation to backsourcing services from a closely intertwined contractor.

This chapter elucidates liquidity forecasting within the context of technical assistance. The audience for this chapter is central bank staff with a strong quantitative background. Liquidity forecasting entails a process of estimating the near-term path of a bank’s reserves using a centralized framework. Short-term liquidity forecasts are used to calibrate the volume of central bank monetary operations to align liquidity with the announced stance of monetary policy, whether expressed as an interest rate or as a quantity. The best practice would be for the central bank to receive accurate information for counterparties that have accounts in its books, including its monetary counterparties (banks) or non-monetary counterparties, such as the government. However, the central bank may not have direct access to some counterparties (e.g., the public which demands banknotes) or the information could include significant errors. This chapter presents the statistical methods that have been used in technical assistance to forecast liquidity factors and the demand for liquidity. It also proposes solutions to select the best models, measure forecast accuracy, and reconcile forecasts. Some liquidity factors are relatively easy to forecast due to regular patterns (currency in circulation) while others require more sophisticated models, such as the government account. There is a tradeoff between the cost of implementing complex models and the accuracy gains.

During the transition process in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the post-socialist countries received much support from Western high developed countries in order to improve the effectiveness of their public administrationand to adapt it to the demands given by the EU. Similar as it was with foreign aid for Latin American, African and Asian countries before, this support was, to say the least, not always effective. The question this paper addresses is how to understand such failures. To answer that question we reviewed the literature on the subject of foreign aid. In that literature an increasing radicalism about foreign aid, based on dubious assumptions, is observed. These assumptions are that the quantity of aid as such makes a difference, that nobody in the aid business cares, that optimizing the input, process and output in organizational and managerial terms will almost automatically improve effectiveness, and that there exists a coherent aid industry.

This paper explicates the assumptions, and treats them as hypotheses. The conclusion, based on research into the aid given to CEE-countries during their transition process, is that the hypotheses have to be refuted. The assumptions underlying the debate about foreign aid are one-sided and false

With instability in financial markets and currency values, particularly the U.S dollar following the global financial crises, this paper seeks to examine how two large multinational firms conduct their currency risk management policies. Attention is paid to observe any discrepancies between what the firms do and what academic literature recommends.

Both firms actively manage all three forms of currency exposures with particularly higher involvements in economic exposure management in contrast to some academic literature. However one of the firms, Trelleborg AB does not manage its profit and lose translation exchange risk originating from translation of income statements of its subsidiaries. Even though most academics do not recommend management of translation exposure because it purportedly has no cash flow implications for the firm, findings here as shown in both case studies indicate that at least some  multinationals manage translation exposure possibly because doing so reduces their stakeholder's perceived risk.

The volatility of share prices is an important variable in most asset pricing models and option pricing formulas.Valuation of volatility of share prices have become a major challenge with the development of the knowledge-driven economy as evidence suggest that not all elements of company wealth are physical in nature.

The purpose of this project entitled “The intensity of the firm’s intangible asset on the volatility of their stock price” is to check if the intensity of intangible assets in a firm’s balance sheet affects the volatility of their stock price. A brief overview of intangible assets is also included in this study.

An OLS regression was run and the results of the entire data set gives a negative correlation between intensity of intangible assets and volatility of stock prices probably due to the fact that the volatility of the firm share prices are driven by uncertainty and expectation of future growth. An industry-grouping regression was carried out, the results shows that for basic pharmaceuticals there is a positive correlation between the intensity of intangible assets and their price volatility while the other three industry groups produce a negative correlation.

The study relies on secondary data of randomly selected fourty (40) publicly traded companies in Europe from four different industry groupings namely: manufacture of basic pharmaceuticals, manufacture of food products and beverages, information technology and manufacture of basic metals.

The aim of this thesis is to study the effect of smoking and drinking on wages in Sweden. The data used in this study is the Swedish Level-of-living survey (LNU) from 1991. A multinomial logit model and the marginal effects from the estimated model are used to study the effect of smoking and drinking on wages in Sweden. The empirical results conclude that medium drinking increases the probability of having a high income, i.e. there is a positive significant relationship between medium drinking and wages in Sweden. Also concluded from the empirical results is that there is not a significant relationship between smoking and wages in Sweden.

Bakgrund: Små- och medelstora företag (SME) är motorn inom den europeiska ekonomin och står idag för 9 av 10 företag. SME är beroende av att deras nyckelroller innehavs av kompetent personal så att företaget kan fortsätta att utvecklas. För att lyckas rekrytera personer med den behövda kompetensen krävs det att företaget använder sig av olika strategier. En interaktion mellan HR och marknadsföring kan leda till en implementering av framgångsrika strategier kring anställning av en nyckelroll till SME. Syfte: Syftet med arbetet är att undersöka hur små- och medelstora företag går tillväga kring rekrytering av nyckelroller samt om de använder några av de tidigare nämnda strategierna. Arbetets resultat kommer bli intressant för små och medelstora företag då de kan använda resultatet som riktlinjer under en rekryteringsprocess av en nyckelroll. Metod: Författarna i studien har valt att utgå från en deduktiv metod. Den empiriska undersökningen utfördes i form av en kvalitativ studie där författarna till studien intervjuade sex företag. Resultat/Slutsats: Författarna av studien fann att det egentligen var två huvudsakliga strategier kring rekrytering av nyckelroller hos de intervjuade företagen. Outsourcing var den ena medans den andra strategin var ganska otydlig. Alla plockade delar ur marknadsmixen, främst när det handlade om annonseringen men tillvägagångssättet tycktes mer ha att göra med individen som hade rollen som ansvarig för rekrytering. Vissa provade bara genom att annonsera via sociala medier och branschtidningar, etc. medans andra hade egna sociala kontaktnät som de headhuntade inom. Författarna till studien drar slutsatsen att då det handlar om små- och medelstora företag så är HR-avdelningen oftast inte så omfattande och nyrekryteringar till nyckelroller sker mer sällan

The performance of different information criteria - namely Akaike, corrected Akaike (AICC), Schwarz-Bayesian (SBC), and Hannan-Quinn - is investigated so as to choose the optimal lag length in stable and unstable vector autoregressive (VAR) models both when autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is present and when it is not. The investigation covers both large and small sample sizes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that SBC has relatively better performance in lag-choice accuracy in many situations. It is also generally the least sensitive to ARCH regardless of stability or instability of the VAR model, especially in large sample sizes. These appealing properties of SBC make it the optimal criterion for choosing lag length in many situations, especially in the case of financial data, which are usually characterized by occasional periods of high volatility. SBC also has the best forecasting abilities in the majority of situations in which we vary sample size, stability, variance structure (ARCH or not), and forecast horizon (one period or five). frequently, AICC also has good lag-choosing and forecasting properties. However, when ARCH is present, the five-period forecast performance of all criteria in all situations worsens.

This simulation study investigates the forecasting performance of a new information criterion suggested by Hatemi-J (2003) to pick the optimal lag length in the stable and unstable vector autregression (VAR) models. The conducted Monte Carlo experiments reveal that this information criterion is successful in selecting the optimal lag order in the VAR model when the main aim is to draw ex-ante (forecasting) inference regardless if the VAR model is stable or not. In addition, the simulations indicate that this information criterion is robust to autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects.

This article investigates the degree of capital mobility in Sweden during 1993 to 2004 using quarterly data. A time varying parameter model is estimated by the Kalman filter, and it shows that the relationship between investment as share in gross domestic product (GDP) and saving as share in GDP is much less than one (within the interval of 0.25-0.35), indicating substantial capital mobility. However, since the coefficient in each period is statistically different from zero, capital is still not perfectly mobile. Nevertheless, capital mobility seems to have increased until 1995 when Sweden became a member of EU and after membership there seems to be no significant increase in capital mobility.

Due to increasing globalization and its potential benefits, many emerging markets have introduced capital liberalization policies to attract much needed foreign direct investment. The objective of this article is to empirically investigate whether the conducted deregulation policies resulted in greater integration of emerging financial markets with the world market. For this purpose, a novel method introduced by Hatemi-J and Hacker (2005) is utilized to calculate the parameters as well as to test the significance of these parameters. This method is shown to be robust to nonnormality and time-varying volatility that usually characterize financial data and therefore it can provide more accurate inference compared to other methods. We find that only four of 17 emerging markets have become more integrated with the world market after implementing the liberalization policy.

The purpose of this dissertation would be to find the relationship between CO₂ emission and GDP. We found that in case of the majority of countries the CO₂ emission is related to national income and follows an inverted-U shaped curve. In our analysis we used the regression technique on 139 countries within the time period 1985-2004 to model and analyze the mentioned relationship and define the variables, that describe it. As it will be proved, Environmental Kuznets Curve validate the model and our hypothesis confirm other researches, therefore the inverse-u relationship proves to be correct.

The aim of this master thesis was to examine whether the noticed effect of Black Monday October 1987 on stock market volatility has also influenced the predictive power of the single factor CAPM and the Fama French three factor CAPM, in order to conclude whether the models are less effective after the stock market crash. I have used an OLS regression analysis and a Monte Carlo Simulation technique. I have applied these techniques on 12 industry portfolios with US data to draw a conclusion whether the predictability of the single and three factor model has changed after October 1987. My research confirms that the single factor CAPM performs better before October 1987 and also found evidences that support the same hypothesis of Black Monday effect on the predictive power of the Fama French three factor model.

Commuting is becoming more and more important in every day life in the world of complex labour markets. If for hundred years ago most workers lived less than one hour walking distance from their workplace, then today they commute daily outside the cities and villages they live. Often is it a trade off between unemployment and employment. The subject of this thesis is to investigate if there are differences in female and male commuting behaviour. Especially it studies to what extent their spatial interaction is affected by variables such as labour in origin municipality, jobs in destination municipality and the distance between these two. Gravity models are used, and six different versions are estimated. The commuting data used in thesis comes from SCB (Statistics Sweden) and data about travel time collected by the Swedish Road Administration. Commuting data includes 1 003 771 people in Sweden who commute to a job located in another municipality than he or she was settled. The results imply that men are less sensitive to distance between two locations. Moreover, the amount of labour in origin and the amount of jobs in destination have higher effect on male commuting.

Purpose: The paper aims to investigate differences in non-professional and professional stock investors’ trust in and tendency to follow financial analysts’ buy and sell recommendations. Design/methodology/approach: Online experiment conducted in Sweden in March 2022 comparing non-professional private investors (n = 80), professional investors (n = 33), and master students in finance (n = 28). Information was presented about four company stocks listed on the New York stock exchange. Two stocks were buy-recommended and two stocks sell-recommended by financial analysts. For one stock of each type, the recommendation was presented to participants. Dependent variables were predictions of the stock price after three months, ratings of confidence in the predictions and choices of holding, buying or selling the stock. Ratings were also made of the importance of presented stock-related information as well as trust in analysts’ skill and integrity. Findings: More positive return predictions were made of buy-recommended than sell-recommended stocks. Non-professionals and to some degree finance students tended to trust financial analysts more than professional investors did and they were more influenced by the presentation of the buy recommendations. All groups made too optimistic return predictions, but the professionals were less confident in their predictions, more likely to sell the stocks and lost less on their investments. Originality/value: A new finding is that non-professional stock investors are more likely than professional stock investors to trust financial analysts and follow their recommendations. It suggests that financial analysts’ recommendations influence non-professional investors to take unmotivated investment risks. Non-professionals in the stock market should hence be advised to exercise more caution in following analysts’ recommendations. 

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate whether loan officers' risk taking in credit decisions are associated with their personal financial risk preference and personality traits or solely with bank-contextual and loan-relevant factors. Design/methodology/approach: An online survey administered in six large Swedish banks to 163 loan officers responsible for assessing credit risk and approval of loan applications. The loan officers rated their likelihood of approving fictitious loan applications from business companies. Findings: The loan officers' credit risk taking is associated with bank-contextual factors, directly with perceived organizational credit risk norms and indirectly with self-confidence in assessing credit risks through attitude to credit risk taking. A direct association is also found with personal financial risk preference but not with personality traits. Research limitations/implications: Increased awareness of that loan officers' personal financial risk preference is associated with their credit risk taking in loan decisions but that the banks' risk policy has a stronger association. Banks' managements and boards should therefore assure that their credit risk policy is implemented, followed and being aligned with their performance incentives. Practical implications: Increased awareness of that loan officers' credit risk taking is associated with personal financial risk preference but more strongly with the banks' risk policy that motivate banks' managements and boards to assure that their credit risk policy is implemented, followed and being aligned with their performance incentives. Originality/value: The first study which directly compare the associations of loan officers' risk taking in credit approvals with personal risk preference and personality traits versus bank-contextual factors and loan-relevant information. 

Mutual funds are the common name for the open-end investment companies. This is the dominant investment company today, accounting for roughly 90% of investment comply assets. Assets under management in the mutual fund industry in United States surpassed $ 12.068 trillion by the end of April 2008 .

Mutual funds performance is one of the most frequently studied topics in investment area in most countries. The reason for this popularity is availability of data and the importance of mutual funds as vehicles for investment in stock market for both individual and institutions. Since mutual funds have become popular the research has also started to include the ways of finding the right mutual funds. Although the price shares and the income from them may go down as well as up but choosing the right mutual funds can have considerable effects on investors ending wealth. The thesis examines the past performance of mutual funds as a criterion for investors' future choices. In particular, it examines if mutual funds which invested in the Swedish stock market. Swedish funds assets have passed the trillion kronor mark in March 2005, and it is rapidly increasing. We started our analysis by the funds attributes influenced the returns. In our study hypotheses are the fund characteristics i.e. popularity growth cost and management variables are included. These attributes are most frequently used by finance academies to simple and multiple regression analysis is used to test these hypotheses. We do not find any strong evidence that the past performance is a guide to future performance. As most of the results studies, our results may be subject to survivorship bias, because we have included only 33 funds in our sample during the last eight years 2000-2007.

Mostly data is collected from Morningstar Sweden, the Swedish Investment fund association and secondary data from some of the mutual funds annual reports .We analyze the data for last eight years from 2000-01-01 to 2007-12-31 and the funds which are invested mostly in Swedish securities.

Before and during our thesis different research studies and financial articles were studied relevant to our research thesis. Our research study results shows that the attributes which have some impact on mutual funds returns are risk, fund size, age, fund turnover and management tenure. The results indicate that the hypothesized relationship between mutual funds performance and the explanatory variables are generally upheld. The study provides a comprehensive examination of recent Swedish mutual funds performance by analyzing the funds returns and funds attributes affecting the funds performance and an effort to link performance to funds specific characteristics.

Microfinance and micro credits are concepts that are used frequently when talking about poverty reducing actions. This paper is a case study of the poverty alleviation impacts of microfinance institutions and it contrasts the effects of Grameen Bank and Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) operating in Bangladesh. The case study examines the organisations effects in the 21st century since most of the reports have compared the effects in the past not reflecting on future conditions. The questions at issue are if Grameen Bank and BRAC can affect the poverty status of its members in a positive way and if there is a positive effect, which of the approaches are the best to use? To analyse the non monetary dimension, concepts such as health and education has been used as indicators for poverty reduction and the monetary indicator used is income through employment. Simultaneously economic models and concepts have been considered throughout the paper.

The findings of this case study implied that both organisations have positive effects on reducing poverty among its members, but BRAC has the broadest view seeing to all factors investigated and therefore its approach is the best to use. Nevertheless, as previous studies have implied sustainability and cost-effectiveness within the microfinance programme is important for the long-run poverty reduction. Evaluating the economic performance of the two organisations Grameen Bank is more efficient in using its resources than BRAC, but Grameen Bank show a decreasing rate of efficiency while BRAC is improving significantly. With this in consideration BRAC is still showing the best poverty reducing result for its members today, but if the organisation does not find a way to improve its economical performance its actions will not be sustainable in the long run.

Social groups implicitly or explicitly strive to achieve various goals that pervade most activities within the group. In social dilemma and game theoretic research, it has been posited that the goal is to achieve the highest possible monetary outcome for the individual or the group. Yet, important group goals may also include future enjoyable social relations, a sense of responsibility, and a concern for others. This thesis argues that research on public good dilemmas need to address the issue of what is a preferred distribution of the public good. This is the focus of the reported research whereas previous research has focused on public good provision. It is assumed that preferences for distributing the public good to group members are related to what goals the group is trying to reach. In Study I allocation preferences in step-level symmetric public good dilemmas were investigated. Experiment 1 revealed that fairness conceptions were related to how participants allocated the public good. Experiment 2 examined the impact of the goals of economic productivity, social concern, and harmony on participants’ allocation preferences. Groups with economic productivity as their goal allocated the resource according to equity, groups with social concern as their goal allocated the resource according to equal treatment, and groups with harmony as their goal allocated the resource according to equal final outcomes. These findings suggest that in a public good dilemma, people apply the allocation principle that serves a particular group goal, independently of their perceptions of fairness. In Study II the prediction was tested that salience of fairness and group goal reduces the influence of self-interest on preferences for allocation principles. In Experiment 1, it was found that perceived fairness of allocation principles increased perceived instrumentality of the principles. Self-interest did however not have any effect. In Experiment 2, economic productivity as the group goal increased allocations according to equity, and the group goal of social concern increased allocations according to equality and equal final outcomes. Self-interest had no effect. Taken together, the results of the empirical studies provide support for that both fairness and group goal influence allocation preferences in public good dilemmas.

Taxation has attracted considerable research attention. In this article some preliminary steps are taken towards advancing a multi-faceted fairness framework of taxation according to which taxation fairness is not only related to the tax expenditure programme (distributive justice), but also to how tax decisions are made (procedural justice), how citizens are treated by the tax authorities/employees (interpersonal justice), and how tax decisions and the legislation are explained and justified to the citizens (informational justice). This framework further posits that taxpayers experience uncertainty in the context of taxation, and that fairness reduces uncertainty. It is also posited that fairness is a prerequisite for legitimacy of the tax system. The framework draws upon the literature on the social psychology of justice and applies it to the taxation context. Altogether, this theoretical framework provides an alternative account of tax attitudes and behavior in that it downplays the role of surveillance and sanctions and instead emphasizes the role of perceived fairness for citizens' willingness to pay taxes and for tax system legitimacy.

Two experiments investigated allocation preferences in symmetric public good di-lemmas. In Experiment1 where 20 undergraduates participated in 5-person groups, it was found that fairness conceptions were a significant predictor of how participants allocated the public good to their group. 60 undergraduates partici-pated in Experiment 2 aimed at studying the impact of goals of economic produc-tivity, social concern, and harmony on participants’ allocation preferences. Groups with economic productivity as their goal allocated the resource according to equity, groups with social concern as their goal allocated the resource accord-ing to equal treatment, and groups with harmony as their goal allocated the re-source according to equal final outcomes. These findings suggest that in a public good dilemma people apply the allocation principle that serves a particular goal, independently of their perceptions of fair allocations.

Theory and research on social dilemmas usually focus on determinants of coop-eration. In the present study, we investigated perceptions of allocations following the provision of a step-level public good. Fairness was assumed to play a role for these perceptions as well as the goal the group wants to attain, whether economic productivity, social concern, or harmony. It is argued that an allocation principle (e.g., equality) may be fair under one goal condition, a different principle (e.g., equity or need) under another goal condition. The results corroborated our line of reasoning. The group goal of economic productivity increased fairness of alloca-tions according to equity, and the group goal of social concern increased fairness of allocations according to equality and equal final outcomes. Self-interest had no effects on perceived fairness or allocation preferences. The salience of fairness and group goal reduced the influence of self-interest on allocation preferences.

Effects of group goal on allocation decisions have previously been studied in symmetric public good dilemmas. With the aim of generalizing the results to asymmetric public good dilemmas where differences in individual needs are more salient, seventy-two undergraduates participating in a one-shot public good dilemma were asked to distribute the good in order to achieve different group goals. As expected, when the group goal was economic productivity, allocations corresponded more to equity, when the group goal was harmony, allocations corresponded more to equality, and when the group goal was social concern, allocations corresponded more to need. The results support the assumption that salience of group goal minimizes the effects of greed on allocations, and that perceived fairness explains why people pursuing a certain group goal tend to prefer a specific allocation strategy in distributing public goods.

In two experiments the prediction was tested that salience of fairness and group goal (economic productivity, social concern, or harmony) reduces the influence of self-interest on preferences for different principles (equity, equal treatment, or equal final outcomes) of distributing the outcomes accrued when a sufficient number contributes in a step-level public good dilemma. In Experiment 1, it was found that perceived fairness of allocation principles increased their perceived instrumentality. Neither allocation instrumentality nor fairness varied with group goal or self-interest. In Experiment 2, the group goal of economic productivity increased fairness of allocations according to equity, and the group goal of social concern increased fairness of allocations according to equality and equal final outcomes. Perceived fairness and group goal were both related to allocation preferences. Self-interest had no effects on perceived fairness of allocation preferences.

Using leading indicators for business forecasting-in contrast to macroeconomic forecasting-has been relatively rare, partly because our traditional time-series methods do not readily allow incorporation of external variables. Nowadays, however, we have an abundance of potentially useful indicators, and there is evidence that utilizing relevant ones in a forecasting model can significantly improve forecast accuracy and transparency. In this article, Nikolaos and Yves show how to find appropriate leading indicators and make good use of them for sales forecasting. 

Inaccurate forecasts can be costly for company operations, in terms of stock-outs and lost sales, or over-stocking, while not meeting service level targets. The forecasting literature, often disjoint from the needs of the forecast users, has focused on providing optimal models in terms of likelihood and various accuracy metrics. However, there is evidence that this does not always lead to better inventory performance, as often the translation between forecast errors and inventory results is not linear. In this study, we consider an approach to parametrising forecasting models by directly considering appropriate inventory metrics and the current inventory policy. We propose a way to combine the competing multiple inventory objectives, i.e. meeting demand, while eliminating excessive stock, and use the resulting cost function to identify inventory optimal parameters for forecasting models. We evaluate the proposed parametrisation against established alternatives and demonstrate its performance on real data. Furthermore, we explore the connection between forecast accuracy and inventory performance and discuss the extent to which the former is an appropriate proxy of the latter. 

Economies and corporations are increasingly being characterized as financialized. The separation of ownership and control is at the core of this development and we depart from an understanding that Jensen & Meckling’s (1976) theory of the firm actualizes or performs the current situation. The purpose of this essay is to radicalize this contemporary dominant version and thereby move towards a socio-political theorizing of the corporation (firm). Our method is to examine and reactivate historical constructs of the corporation, with sensitivity to the socio- historical contexts in which these constructs developed. By divorcing Jensen & Meckling’s theory of the firm from various historical constructs of the corporation, we e.g. find that ‘sovereign corporateness with limited liability’, ‘unlimited liability of individual entrepreneurs’ and ‘statesmanship of the post-war era’ are obscured and lost under a doctrine of micro-economics. We end the essay with two propositions on how to: 1) engage in research with the purpose of dismantling the existing conditions of possibility of contemporary financialization of the corporation and 2) theorise a new post-financialized corporation (firm) to be actualized.

Syftet med förstudien var att minska kunskapsgapet gällande lantbrukares beslutsfattande med målet att erhålla en djupare förståelse för lantbrukarnas beslutsfattande i praktiken. Lantbrukares beslutsfattande är en process som influeras av en mängd olika faktorer och som kräver att de är insatta i många spe-cialiserade områden. Tidigare forskning inom området saknar ett helhetsperspektiv där både biologiska, tekniska, ekonomiska, etiska och sociala faktorer integreras utifrån lantbrukarnas livsvärld. Tre lantbrukare från Västsverige har ingått i studien, vilken har utförts som en multipel fallstudie, i form av arbetsplatsstudier, för att kartlägga de deltagande lantbrukarnas livsvärld, stödet från rådgivarna och diverse externa resurser t ex IT-verktyg. Denna kvalitativa forskningsdesign har resulterat i ett flertal detaljerade beskrivningar av hur val och beslut fattas på gårdsnivå än vad som är möjligt med mer kvantitativa metoder och statistisk analys av socioekonomiska variabler. Enligt forskare inom området ”farm management” saknas denna form av studier inom lantbruksdomänen och denna studie anses vara ett första steg i den riktningen. I rapporten lyfts ett antal faktorer fram gällande lantbrukarens livsvärld, rådgivningens roll samt IT-stödens inverkan och andra materiella artefakter. Rapporten presenterar en diskussion över det erhållna resultatet, olika synsätt och förklaringar till kunskap och tänkande samt ger förslag på fortsatt forskning. Rapporten avslutas med en mängd slutsatser, vilka kortfattat indikerar att lantbrukarens varande i världen är komplext och kan beskrivas som ett dynamiskt system utan tydliga linjära orsakssamband, vilket både är fascinerande och frusterande. Rådgivningstjänsten anses främst vara en stödfunktion och bollplank för mer löpande beslut gällande grödor, sprutning och gödsling medan de mer större och strategiska besluten initialt diskuteras i andra nätverk. Rådgivningen bedöms behöva utvecklas genom att gå lite mer utanför den ordinarie verksamheten och ta lite mer höjd på ett mer strategiskt plan för gården som helhet samt ytterligare ifrågasätta gängse rutiner och åtgärder.

Optioner är ett instrument som investerare kan använda för att spekulera i framtida upp-eller nedgångar på olika tillgångar. Om dessa optioner är felprissatta finns det möjlighet att göra riskfria vinster med hjälp av Stolls köp-säljparitet. Tidigare studier visar att marknaden inte alltid är effektiv i sin prissättning av aktieindexoptioner och att det därigenom finns möjlighet till arbitrage. Denna studie undersöker huruvida marknaden är effektiv i sin prissättning av VINX30 aktieindexoptioner, d.v.s. finns det möjlighet till arbitrag på VINX30 aktieindexoptioner?

The aim of this thesis is to study the risk for two Swedish companies, Axfood and Volvo. To test the required return on equity, a bottom-up beta approach and a CAPM regression beta are used. This thesis concludes that the bottom-up beta gives a truer reflection and a more updated beta value than a CAPM regression beta on the firm’s current business mix, the CAPM beta takes only the past stock prices into consideration. The empirical results for Volvo conclude that the levered bottom-up beta is 1.09 and the CAPM β is 0.52 for Volvo. The empirical results for Axfood which is categorized as consumer goods sector implies that the levered bottom-up beta is 0.87 while the CAPM regression beta is 0.29.

As well known and much discussed, the European demographic development will mean problems for economic growth in the future. While the part of the population, which is older than 65, will continue to rise both relative to the labour force and in absolute terms, the active population between 20 and 64 probably will fall, at least relatively if not absolutely. In this paper we will treat two central questions. The first question is dealing with the demographic development and possible effects of migration in West Europe. Regarding the new member countries and the candidate countries, with the exception of Turkey, the demographic development here is even more difficult than the one in West Europe. Furthermore, migration to Europe could implicate a brain drain, which may deteriorate the economic and social situation in the countries of emigration. In this part we even will discuss, whether the population situation in Europe could lead to an enlargement of the EU or other arrangements of co-operation with countries, which traditionally are not seen as candidates for membership. The second main question in the paper will discuss the implications of the population development and of migration for economic growth. A difference can be made between growth of total GDP, GDP per head of population and GDP per employed person. Yet the main emphasis of the empirical growth discussion will deal with GDP pc. We will even discus, whether the possibilities of falling growth could be leveled out by higher formation of physical and human capital, changes of participation rates and working hours

Trade openness, market size, transparency, ease of doing business, location advantagesand low levels of corruption and country risk are the main determinants that attractForeign Direct Investment into a host country. FDI inflows in México have increasedremarkably since 1994 when the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) cameinto effect. Using multiple regression analysis in order to measure the impact of FDI onGDP; the Empirical results showed that a one percent increase in FDI leads on average toan increase of 0.08 percent in GDP which clearly reflects a positive but neither animportant nor a substantial impact of FDI on economic growth in México as it would beexpected. Time series data analysis for the period 1980-2007 has been tested for UnitRoot by applying the Dickey-Fuller (DF) test. Each time series after the first differencebecomes stationary and therefore it might be a causal relationship among the variables.However, FDI will not have a real impact on the society unless there is an effective stockof Human Capital capable of learning and absorbing the know-how to work successfullywith the technology that Multinational Corporations bring into the host country with theirinvestment. The challenge for the Mexican Government is to create structural reformssuch as the deregulation of energy and oil sector for private investment that will lead toconstantly higher flows of FDI. In the medium term this will then be reflected in thesociety in terms of poverty reduction and development of its population.

The role of foreign aid in promoting economic growth and improving the social welfare of people has been the subject of much debate among development specialists, researchers, aid donors as well as recipients in general and Cameroon in particular. In spite of this, there are only few empirical studies that investigate the contributions of foreign aid to economic growth and development in Cameroon. This study explores the impact of foreign aid to economic growth and development in Cameroon using descriptive statistics for data that spans from 1997 to 2006. The results show that foreign aid significantly contributes to the current level of economic growth but has no significant contribution to economic development. The findings imply that Cameroon could enhance its economic development by effectively managing funds from aid and by strategically strengthening anti-corruption measures.

The rest of the work is organized as follows: Chapter one consist of an introduction, chapter two is the literature review, chapter three constitute the research methodology, chapter four is the data presentation and analyses, chapter five summary of findings and recommendations and lastly chapter six conclusions,

This study examines the impact of exchange rate on inflation in Nigeria economy between 1970 and 2007. We analyzed the trend of inflation and exchange rate in the last 38 years by evaluating the relationship between government expenditure, money supply, Oil revenue, exchange rate and inflation as the dependent variables. We adopted the Augmented Dickey- Fuller to carry out the unit root test and co integration with Johansen test.

Our result shows that the individual variables are integrated order one, that is a unit root exist. This means that each variable tends to follow a random walk. On the other hand, inflation rate, exchange rate, oil revenue, government spending and money supply are co integrated. This revealed a strong relationship among the variables though inflation rate and exchange rate show no long term relationship, but short term relationship seems to exist between them.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries.

The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used.

The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth.

The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.