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Effects of visualizing uncertainty on decision-making in a target identification scenario
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. University of Skövde, The Informatics Research Centre. (Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL))ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2900-9335
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. (Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL))
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. (Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL))ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8884-2154
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. (Interaction Lab)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6310-346X
2014 (English)In: Computers & graphics, ISSN 0097-8493, E-ISSN 1873-7684, Vol. 41, no 1, 84-98 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents an empirical study that addresses the effects the visualization of uncertainty has on decision-making. We focus our investigations on an area where uncertainty plays an important role and the decision time is limited. For that, we selected an air defense scenario, where expert operators have a few minutes to make a well-informed decision based on uncertain sensor data regarding the identity of an object and where the consequences of a late or wrong decision are severe. An approach for uncertainty visualization is proposed and tested using a prototype that supports the interactive analysis of multivariate spatio-temporal sensor data. The uncertainty visualization embeds the accuracy of the sensor data values using the thickness of the lines in the graphical representation of the sensor values. Semi-transparent filled circles represent the uncertain position, while a track quality value between 0 and 1 accounts for the quality of the estimated track for each target. Twenty-two experienced air traffic operators were divided into two groups (with and without uncertainty visualization) and carried out identification and prioritization tasks using the prototype. The results show that the group aided by visualizations of uncertainty needed significantly fewer attempts to make a final identification, and a significant difference between the groups when considering the identities and priorities assigned was observed (participants with uncertainty visualization selected higher priority values and more hostile and suspect identities). These results may show that experts put themselves in the ``worst-case scenario" in the presence of uncertainty when safety is an issue. Additionally, the presentation of uncertainty neither increased the participants' expressed workload, nor the time needed to make a classification. However, the inclusion of the uncertainty information did not have a significant effect on the performance (true positives, false negatives and false positives) or the participants' expressed confidence in their decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2014. Vol. 41, no 1, 84-98 p.
Keyword [en]
Uncertainty visualization, Decision-making, Confidence, Performance, Workload, Target identification
National Category
Human Computer Interaction
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-9045DOI: 10.1016/j.cag.2014.02.006ISI: 000336349700008Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84897553740OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-9045DiVA: diva2:715253
Available from: 2014-05-02 Created: 2014-05-02 Last updated: 2015-10-13Bibliographically approved

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Riveiro, MariaHelldin, ToveFalkman, GöranMikael, Lebram
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