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Estimation of distance related probability of animal movements between holdings and implications for disease spread modeling
IFM Theory and Modelling, Linköping University.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney.
Department of Disease Control and Epidemiology, SVA, National Veterinary Institute.
University of Skövde, The Systems Biology Research Centre. University of Skövde, School of Life Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3965-7371
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2009 (English)In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, ISSN 0167-5877, E-ISSN 1873-1716, Vol. 91, no 2-4, 85-94 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Between holding contacts are more common over short distances and this may have implications for the dynamics of disease spread through these contacts. A reliable estimation of how contacts depend on distance is therefore important when modeling livestock diseases. In this study, we have developed a method for analyzing distant dependent contacts and applied it to animal movement data from Sweden. The data were analyzed with two competing models. The first model assumes that contacts arise from a purely distance dependent process. The second is a mixture model and assumes that, in addition, some contacts arise independent of distance. Parameters were estimated with a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and the model probabilities were compared. We also investigated possible between model differences in predicted contact structures, using a collection of network measures.

We found that the mixture model was a much better model for the data analyzed. Also, the network measures showed that the models differed considerably in predictions of contact structures, which is expected to be important for disease spread dynamics. We conclude that a model with contacts being both dependent on, and independent of, distance was preferred for modeling the example animal movement contact data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2009. Vol. 91, no 2-4, 85-94 p.
Keyword [en]
Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Mixture models, Model selection, Animal movements, Disease transmission, Network analysis
National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Natural sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-3288DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.05.022ISI: 000269642700002PubMedID: 19540009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-68549139895OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-3288DiVA: diva2:227088
Available from: 2009-07-09 Created: 2009-07-09 Last updated: 2017-06-16Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf