Högskolan i Skövde

Threat evaluation is the process in which threat values are assigned to detected targets, based upon the inferred capabilities and intents of the targets to inflict damage to blue force defended assets. This is a high-level information fusion process of high importance, since the calculated threat values are used as input when blue force weapon systems are allocated to the incoming targets, a process often referred to as weapon allocation. Threat values can be calculated from a number of different parameters, such as the position of the closest point of approach (CPA) with respect to blue force defended assets, time required to reach the CPA, the target's velocity, and its type. A number of algorithms for calculating threat values have been suggested throughout literature, however, criteria to evaluate the performance of such algorithms seem to be lacking. In this paper, we discuss different ways to assess the performance of threat evaluation algorithms. In specific, we describe an implemented testbed in which threat evaluation algorithms can be compared to each other, based on a survivability criterion. Survivability is measured by running the threat evaluation algorithms on simulated scenarios and using the resulting threat values as input to a weapon allocation module. Depending on how well the threat evaluation is performed, the ability of the blue force weapon systems to eliminate the incoming targets will vary (and thereby also the survivability of the defended assets). Our obtained results for two different threat evaluation algorithms are presented and analyzed.