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Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model
University of Skövde, School of Bioscience. University of Skövde, Systems Biology Research Environment. (Ekologisk modellering, Ecological Modelling Group)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0097-1379
Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, University of Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
2022 (English)In: Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, ISSN 0090-4341, E-ISSN 1432-0703, Vol. 83, no 4, p. 376-394Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a new model which we term a toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub-model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs and is linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure, given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from the literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The model showed that reduced fertility due to increased PCB exposure causes decreased vertical transfer from mother to offspring and in turn increased biomagnification in non-breeding females. The developed TKTD model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants by adjustments of model parameters and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature Switzerland AG , 2022. Vol. 83, no 4, p. 376-394
National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Ecological Modelling Group
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-21983DOI: 10.1007/s00244-022-00962-3ISI: 000869243100001PubMedID: 36242644Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85139853349OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-21983DiVA, id: diva2:1706646
Funder
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2021-00028BONUS - Science for a better future of the Baltic Sea region, Art. 185Swedish Research Council, 2018-05523
Note

CC BY 4.0

© 2022, The Author(s)

© 2022 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Part of Springer Nature.

Published: 15 October 2022

Open access funding provided by University of Skövde. Funding was provided by Viltforskningsanslaget, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2021-00028) and the BONUS program BaltHealth (Art. 185). Mauritsson was partially supported by the Swedish research council, grant/award number 2018-05523. The authors declare that no other support were received during the preparation of the manuscript.

Available from: 2022-10-27 Created: 2022-10-27 Last updated: 2024-01-19Bibliographically approved

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