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Evaluating Fast and Efficient Modeling Methods for Simulation-Based Optimization
University of Skövde, School of Engineering Science. University of Skövde, Virtual Engineering Research Environment. Powertrain Engineering Sweden AB, Skövde, Sweden. (Produktion och automatiseringsteknik (PAT), Production and automation engineering))ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1215-152x
2021 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

As the industry in general, and the automotive industry in particular, is transforming -- due to new technologies and changes in market demands through electrification, digitalization, and globalization -- maintaining a competitive edge will require better predictions. Better predictions of production performance allows companies to capitalize on opportunities, avoid costly mistakes, and be proactive about change.

A commonly used tool in manufacturing for the prediction of production performance is discrete-event simulation. In combination with artificial intelligence methods such as multi-objective optimization, in literature often referred to as simulation-based optimization, and knowledge extraction, bottlenecks in the production process can be identified and recipes for optimal improvement order can be obtained. These recipes support the decision-maker in both understanding the production system and improving it optimally in terms of resource efficiency and investment cost. Even though the use of simulation-based optimization is widespread on the production line level, use on the factory level is more scarce. Improvements on the production line level, without a holistic view of factory performance, can be suboptimal and may only lead to increased storage levels instead of increased output to the customer.

The main obstacle for applying simulation-based optimization to the factory level is the complexity of its constituent parts, i.e., detailed production line models. Connecting several detailed production line models to create a factory model results in an overly complicated, albeit, accurate model. A single factory model running for one minute would equate to almost 140 days required for an optimization project, too long to provide decision-support relevant to manufacturing decision-making. This can be mitigated by parallel computing, but a more effective approach is to simplify the production line models to decrease the runtime while trying to maintain accuracy. Model simplification methods are approaches to reduce model complexity in new and existing simulation models. Previous research has provided an accurate and runtime efficient simplification method by use of a generic model structure built by common modeling components. Although the method seems promising in a few publications, it was lacking external and internal validity.

This project presents simulation-based optimization on the factory level enabled by a model simplification method. By following the design science research methodology, several case-studies mainly in the automotive industry identify issues with the current implementation, propose additions to the method, and validates them.

Abstract [sv]

Industrin i allmänhet, och fordonsindustrin i synnerhet, är under transformation -- som reaktion på nya tekniker och marknadsförändringar orsakade av elektrifiering, digitalisering och globalisering -- och för att upprätthålla konkurrenskraft krävs bättre prediktering av nuvarande och framtida produktionsprestanda. Bättre prediktering ger företag möjlighet att gå från att vara reaktiva till att vara proaktiva och undvika kostsamma misstag.       

Ett vanligt verktyg i tillverkande industri för att förutspå produktionsprestanda är diskret händelsestyrd simulering. Kombinerat med artificiell intelligens -- genom flermålsoptimering, även kallat simuleringsbaserad optimering, och kunskapsextrahering -- kan flaskhalsar identifieras och ge recept för en optimal förbättringsordning. Dessa recept stödjer beslutsfattaren genom både förståelse för sitt eget produktionssystem och hur det kan förbättras optimalt med avseende på resurseffektivitet och investeringskostnad. Även om simuleringsbaserad optimering är vanligt förekommande för produktionslinjer är det desto mer sällsynt på fabriksnivån. Förbättringar på produktionslinjenivå, utan hänsyn till den övergripande fabriksnivån, kan vara suboptimala och endast leda till ökade lagernivåer istället för leverans till slutkund.       

Det största hindret för att applicera simuleringsbaserad optimering på fabriksnivån är komplexiteten av dess ingående delar, det vill säga de detaljerade modellerna på produktionslinjenivå. Att ansluta flera detaljerade produktionslinjemodeller för att skapa en fabriksmodell resulterar i en överkomplicerad men exakt modell. En fabriksmodell som kräver en minut simuleringstid betyder nästan 140 dagars simuleringstid för en optimeringsstudie. Tiden kan minskas genom parallella processer men ett mer lämpligt angreppssätt är att minska komplexiteten för produktionslinjemodellerna, och därmed körtiden, och samtidigt bibehålla noggrannheten i resultaten. Metoder för modellförenkling är angreppssätt för att reducera modellkomplexitet i nya och existerande modeller. En existerande metod ger noggranna och snabba modeller genom en generisk modellstruktur byggd på vanligt förekommande modellkomponenter. Metoden har visats fungera i ett antal publikationer men experiment för att säkerställa validitet och generaliserbarhet saknas.       

Detta projekt presenterar simuleringsbaserad optimering på fabriker vilket möjliggörs genom en validerad modellförenklingsmetod. Genom att följa forskningsmetoden design science har flera fallstudier planerats och genomförts för att identifiera brister i nuvarande implementation, genomföra förbättringar och validera dessa.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Skövde: University of Skövde , 2021. , p. 140
Series
Dissertation Series ; 40
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Production and Automation Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-20624ISBN: 978-91-984919-4-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-20624DiVA, id: diva2:1600918
Presentation
2021-10-26, Portalen, Insikten, Kanikegränd 3, Skövde, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Smart Industry Research School
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Note

In reference to IEEE copyrighted material which is used with permission in this thesis, the IEEE does not endorse any of University of Skövde's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. If interested in reprinting/republishing IEEE copyrighted material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution, please go to http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/rights_link.html to learn how to obtain a License from RightsLink.

Available from: 2021-10-12 Created: 2021-10-06 Last updated: 2021-11-01Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Applying Aggregated Line Modeling Techniques to Optimize Real World Manufacturing Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Applying Aggregated Line Modeling Techniques to Optimize Real World Manufacturing Systems
2018 (English)In: Procedia Manufacturing, E-ISSN 2351-9789, Vol. 25, p. 89-96Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The application of discrete event simulation methodology in the analysis of higher level manufacturing systems has been limited due to model complexity and the lack of aggregation techniques for manufacturing lines. Recent research has introduced new aggregation methods preparing for new approaches in the analysis of higher level manufacturing systems or networks. In this paper one of the new aggregated line modeling techniques is successfully applied on a real world manufacturing system, solving a real-world problem. The results demonstrate that the aggregation technique is adequate to be applied in plant wide models. Furthermore, in this particular case, there is a potential to reduce storage levels by over 25 %, through leveling the production flow, without compromising deliveries to customers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Discrete event simulation, Aggregated line modeling, Multi-objective optimization, Manufacturing systems
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
INF203 Virtual Machining; Production and Automation Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-16476 (URN)10.1016/j.promfg.2018.06.061 (DOI)000547903500012 ()2-s2.0-85062632645 (Scopus ID)
Conference
8th Swedish Production Symposium, SPS, Stockholm, Sweden May 16-18, 2018
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Note

CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Available from: 2019-01-15 Created: 2019-01-15 Last updated: 2024-05-17Bibliographically approved
2. Using Aggregated Discrete Event Simulation Models and Multi-Objective Optimization to Improve Real-World Factories
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using Aggregated Discrete Event Simulation Models and Multi-Objective Optimization to Improve Real-World Factories
2018 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference / [ed] M. Rabe, A. A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, B. Johansson, IEEE, 2018, p. 2015-2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Improving production line performance and identifying bottlenecks using simulation-based optimization has been shown to be an effective approach. Nevertheless, for larger production systems which are consisted of multiple production lines, using simulation-based optimization can be too computationally expensive, due to the complexity of the models. Previous research has shown promising techniques for aggregating production line data into computationally efficient modules, which enables the simulation of higher-level systems, i.e., factories. This paper shows how a real-world factory flow can be optimized by applying the previously mentioned aggregation techniques in combination with multi-objective optimization using an experimental approach. The particular case studied in this paper reveals potential reductions of storage levels by over 30 %, lead time reductions by 67 %, and batch sizes reduced by more than 50 % while maintaining the delivery precision of the industrial system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2018
Series
Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings., ISSN 0891-7736, E-ISSN 1558-4305
Keywords
nondominated sorting approach, algorithm
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
INF203 Virtual Machining; Production and Automation Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-16477 (URN)10.1109/WSC.2018.8632337 (DOI)000461414102019 ()2-s2.0-85062618810 (Scopus ID)978-1-5386-6572-5 (ISBN)978-1-5386-6573-2 (ISBN)978-1-5386-6570-1 (ISBN)978-1-5386-6571-8 (ISBN)
Conference
Winter Simulation Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, Decemeber 9-12, 2018
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20120066
Available from: 2019-02-19 Created: 2019-02-19 Last updated: 2021-10-06
3. Evaluating the impact of changes on a global supply chain using an iterative approach in a proof-of-concept model
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluating the impact of changes on a global supply chain using an iterative approach in a proof-of-concept model
2018 (English)In: Advances in Manufacturing Technology XXXII: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Manufacturing Research, incorporating the 33rd National Conference on Manufacturing Research, September 11–13, 2018, University of Skövde, Sweden / [ed] Peter Thorvald, Keith Case, Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2018, p. 467-472Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Analyzing networks of supply-chains, where each chain is comprised of several actors with different purposes and performance measures, is a difficult task. There exists a large potential in optimizing supply-chains for many companies and therefore the supply-chain optimization problem is of great interest to study. To be able to optimize the supply-chain on a global scale, fast models are needed to reduce computational time. Previous research has been made into the aggregation of factories, but the technique has not been tested against supply-chain problems. When evaluating the configuration of factories and their inter-transportation on a global scale, new insights can be gained about which parameters are important and how the aggregation fits to a supply-chain problem. The paper presents an interactive proof-of-concept model enabling testing of supply chain concepts by users and decision makers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2018
Series
Advances in Transdisciplinary Engineering, ISSN 2352-751X, E-ISSN 2352-7528 ; 8
Keywords
Aggregated modeling, Discrete Event Simulation, Manufacturing, Proof-of-concept, Supply-chain management, Decision making, Iterative methods, Manufacture, Supply chain management, Computational time, Global supply chain, Interactive proofs, Iterative approach, Performance measure, Proof of concept, Supply chain optimization, Industrial research
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Production and Automation Engineering; INF203 Virtual Machining
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-16496 (URN)10.3233/978-1-61499-902-7-467 (DOI)000462212700075 ()2-s2.0-85057354809 (Scopus ID)978-1-61499-901-0 (ISBN)978-1-61499-902-7 (ISBN)
Conference
16th International Conference on Manufacturing Research, incorporating the 33rd National Conference on Manufacturing Research, September 11–13, 2018, University of Skövde, Sweden
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Available from: 2018-12-13 Created: 2018-12-13 Last updated: 2021-10-06Bibliographically approved
4. Optimizing real-world factory flows using aggregated discrete event simulation modelling: Creating decision-support through simulation-based optimization and knowledge-extraction
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Optimizing real-world factory flows using aggregated discrete event simulation modelling: Creating decision-support through simulation-based optimization and knowledge-extraction
2020 (English)In: Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, ISSN 1936-6582, E-ISSN 1936-6590, Vol. 32, no 4, p. 888-912Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Reacting quickly to changing market demands and new variants by improving and adapting industrial systems is an important business advantage. Changes to systems are costly; especially when those systems are already in place. Resources invested should be targeted so that the results of the improvements are maximized. One method allowing this is the combination of discrete event simulation, aggregated models, multi-objective optimization, and data-mining shown in this article. A real-world optimization case study of an industrial problem is conducted resulting in lowering the storage levels, reducing lead time, and lowering batch sizes, showing the potential of optimizing on the factory level. Furthermore, a base for decision-support is presented, generating clusters from the optimization results. These clusters are then used as targets for a decision tree algorithm, creating rules for reaching different solutions for a decision-maker to choose from. Thereby allowing decisions to be driven by data, and not by intuition. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2020
Keywords
Aggregation, Data mining, Decision support, Discrete event simulation, Industrial case study, Multi-objective optimization, Agglomeration, Decision making, Decision support systems, Decision trees, Digital storage, Multiobjective optimization, Trees (mathematics), Decision supports, Decision-tree algorithm, Industrial problem, Industrial systems, Knowledge extraction, Real-world optimization, Simulation-based optimizations
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Production and Automation Engineering; VF-KDO
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-17480 (URN)10.1007/s10696-019-09362-7 (DOI)000591563100006 ()2-s2.0-85068764729 (Scopus ID)
Note

CC BY 4.0

Available from: 2019-07-25 Created: 2019-07-25 Last updated: 2024-09-17Bibliographically approved
5. Multi-Level Optimization with Aggregated Discrete-Event Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-Level Optimization with Aggregated Discrete-Event Models
2020 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2020 Winter Simulation Conference / [ed] K.-H. Bae; B. Feng; S. Kim; S. Lazarova-Molnar; Z. Zheng; T. Roeder; R. Thiesing, IEEE, 2020, p. 1515-1526Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Removing bottlenecks that restrain the overall performance of a factory can give companies a competitive edge. Although in principle, it is possible to connect multiple detailed discrete-event simulation models to form a complete factory model, it could be too computationally expensive, especially if the connected models are used for simulation-based optimizations. Observing that computational speed of running a simulation model can be significantly reduced by aggregating multiple line-level models into an aggregated factory level, this paper investigates, with some loss of detail, if the identified bottleneck information from an aggregated factory model, in terms of which parameters to improve, would be useful and accurate enough when compared to the bottleneck information obtained with some detailed connected line-level models. The results from a real-world, multi-level industrial application study have demonstrated the feasibility of this approach, showing that the aggregation method can represent the underlying detailed line-level model for bottleneck analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2020
Series
Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, ISSN 0891-7736, E-ISSN 1558-4305
Keywords
Aggregation, Data mining, Decision support, Discrete event simulation, Industrial case study, Multi-objective optimization, Agglomeration, Decision making, Decision support systems, Decision trees, Digital storage, Multiobjective optimization, Trees (mathematics), Decision supports, Decision-tree algorithm, Industrial problem, Industrial systems, Knowledge extraction, Real-world optimization, Simulation-based optimizations
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
VF-KDO; Production and Automation Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-19643 (URN)10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383990 (DOI)000679196301044 ()2-s2.0-85103904651 (Scopus ID)978-1-7281-9499-8 (ISBN)978-1-7281-9500-1 (ISBN)
Conference
Winter Simulation Conference, December 14-18, 2020, Virtual Conference
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Note

Copyright © 2020, IEEE

Available from: 2021-04-20 Created: 2021-04-20 Last updated: 2024-09-17Bibliographically approved
6. Model Simplification Methods for Coded Discrete-Event Simulation Models: A Systematic Review and Experimental Study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Model Simplification Methods for Coded Discrete-Event Simulation Models: A Systematic Review and Experimental Study
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In an increasingly competitive market due to customer demands of customization and an increasing rate of new product variant introductions, companies need to explore new tools to support them to better predict and optimally re-configure their production networks. In terms of the factory flow level, discrete-event simulation and simulation-based optimization represent such kinds  of tools available at the disposal of production engineers or managers. For a complex factory consisting of multiple production lines, creating detailed simulation models of these lines and connecting them together can be used for optimization, but the computational complexity can be prohibitively large for acquiring results in time. Model simplification methods can be utilized to reduce the computational complexity of a model. In this study, a systematic literature review is conducted with the aim of identifying simplification methods for coded models, characteristics of the detailed model, type of industry, motivation, and validation measures. Based on the results of the literature review an experimental study wherein the limits of a specific simplification method are analyzed. We compare the output of a dynamically created model with the output of a simplified representation. A correlation can be observed between outputs for medium to large lines, but for smaller lines, there is a larger discrepancy. The simplification method allows for the reduction in simulation runtime, enabling simulation-based optimization of large lines or interconnected simplified models forming a production network, i.e., a factory, to be optimized and analyzed more efficiently, leading to competitive advantages for companies.

Keywords
Discrete-event simulation, model simplification, model aggregation, systematic literature review
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Production and Automation Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-20625 (URN)
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Note

Preprint submitted to international journal, August 25, 2021.

Available from: 2021-10-06 Created: 2021-10-06 Last updated: 2021-10-06Bibliographically approved

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Lidberg, Simon

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