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Evaluation of traditional and Bayesian arima models: Uncertainty and accuracy
University of Skövde, School of Informatics.
2020 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This thesis evaluates two models for time series forecasting in terms of uncertainty. The one is traditional ARIMA model evaluate its parameters by Maximum Likelihood Evaluation (MLE) and uses confidence intervals to denote the uncertainty and another is Bayesian ARIMA model uses credible intervals of posterior distribution to denote uncertainty. The dataset is simulated with fixed arguments which set AR and MA to be 1, 3, 5 respectively. The result shows that the uncertainty of forecasting from the Bayesian model is higher than from traditional ARIMA model evaluated by Mean Interval Score. The accuracy of the prediction in Bayesian ARIMA model has less error than in traditional ARIMA model in most of the data evaluated by Mean Square Error.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. , p. 35
Keywords [en]
ARIMA, uncertainty, time series forecast
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-19176OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-19176DiVA, id: diva2:1476130
Subject / course
Informationsteknologi
Educational program
Data Science - Master’s Programme
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2020-10-13 Created: 2020-10-13 Last updated: 2020-10-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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