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Automatic robust estimation for exponential smoothing: Perspectives from statistics and machine learning
Birmingham Business School Department of Management, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8919-1701
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. University of Skövde, Informatics Research Environment. Lancaster University Management School Department of Management Science, United Kingdom. (Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL))ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0211-5218
Stockholm School of Economics Center for Data Analytics, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0589-4034
Coventry University Faculty of Business, Environment and Society, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1340-5093
2020 (English)In: Expert systems with applications, ISSN 0957-4174, E-ISSN 1873-6793, Vol. 160, article id 113637Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A major challenge in automating the production of a large number of forecasts, as often required in many business applications, is the need for robust and reliable predictions. Increased noise, outliers and structural changes in the series, all too common in practice, can severely affect the quality of forecasting. We investigate ways to increase the reliability of exponential smoothing forecasts, the most widely used family of forecasting models in business forecasting. We consider two alternative sets of approaches, one stemming from statistics and one from machine learning. To this end, we adapt M-estimators, boosting and inverse boosting to parameter estimation for exponential smoothing.  We propose appropriate modifications that are necessary for time series forecasting while aiming to obtain scalable algorithms. We evaluate the various estimation methods using multiple real datasets and find that several approaches outperform the widely used maximum likelihood estimation. The novelty of this work lies in (1) demonstrating the usefulness of M-estimators, (2) and of inverse boosting, which outperforms standard boosting approaches, and (3) a comparative look at statistics versus machine learning inspired approaches.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2020. Vol. 160, article id 113637
Keywords [en]
Forecasting, Exponential smoothing, M-estimators, Boosting, Bagging
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Economics Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-18482DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113637ISI: 000573453200006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85087282998OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-18482DiVA, id: diva2:1435912
Available from: 2020-06-05 Created: 2020-06-05 Last updated: 2020-10-28Bibliographically approved

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Kourentzes, Nikolaos

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