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On intermittent demand model optimisation and selection
Department of Management Science, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster, Lancashire, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0211-5218
2014 (English)In: International Journal of Production Economics, ISSN 0925-5273, E-ISSN 1873-7579, Vol. 156, p. 180-190Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Intermittent demand time series involve items that are requested infrequently, resulting in sporadic demand. Crostons method and its variants have been proposed in the literature to address this forecasting problem. Recently other novel methods have appeared. Although the literature provides guidance on the suggested range for model parameters, a consistent and valid optimisation methodology is lacking. Growing evidence in the literature points against the use of conventional accuracy error metrics for model evaluation for intermittent demand time series. Consequently these may be inappropriate for parameter or model selection. This paper contributes to the discussion by evaluating a series of conventional time series error metrics, along with two novel ones for parameter optimisation for intermittent demand methods. The proposed metrics are found to not only perform best, but also provide consistent parameters with the literature, in contrast to conventional metrics. Furthermore, this work validates that employing different parameters for smoothing the non-zero demand and the inter-demand intervals of Crostons method and its variants is beneficial. The evaluated error metrics are considered for automatic model selection for each time series. Although they are found to perform similar to theory driven model selection schemes, they fail to outperform single models substantially. These findings are validated using both out-of-sample forecast evaluation and inventory simulations. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2014. Vol. 156, p. 180-190
Keywords [en]
Crostons method, Forecasting, Intermittent demand, Model selection, Optimisation, SBA method, TSB method, Optimisations, Time series
National Category
Energy Systems Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-18255DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.06.007ISI: 000341466100018Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84905967494OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-18255DiVA, id: diva2:1402789
Available from: 2020-02-28 Created: 2020-02-28 Last updated: 2020-02-28Bibliographically approved

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Kourentzes, Nikolaos

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • apa-cv
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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