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Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism
Lancaster University Management School, Department of Management Science, Lancaster, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0211-5218
Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Australia.
2019 (English)In: Annals of Tourism Research, ISSN 0160-7383, E-ISSN 1873-7722, Vol. 75, p. 393-409Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Key to ensuring a successful tourism sector is timely policy making and detailed planning. National policy formulation and strategic planning requires long-term forecasts at an aggregate level, while regional operational decisions require short-term forecasts, relevant to local tourism operators. For aligned decisions at all levels, supporting forecasts must be ‘coherent’ that is they should add up appropriately, across relevant demarcations (e.g., geographical divisions or market segments) and also across time. We propose an approach for generating coherent forecasts across both cross-sections and planning horizons for Australia. This results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy with substantial decision making benefits. Coherent forecasts help break intra- and inter-organisational information and planning silos, in a data driven fashion, blending information from different sources. This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on Tourism Demand Forecast, a special selection of research in this field.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019. Vol. 75, p. 393-409
Keywords [en]
Cross-sectional aggregation, Forecast combinations, Spatial correlations, Temporal aggregation, correlation, decision making, forecasting method, policy development, policy making, strategic approach, tourism management, Australia
National Category
Environmental Sciences Peace and Conflict Studies Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-18234DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2019.02.001ISI: 000474679500029Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85062600988OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-18234DiVA, id: diva2:1398957
Available from: 2020-02-27 Created: 2020-02-27 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Kourentzes, Nikolaos

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • apa-cv
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf