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Mitigating Escalation of Cascading Effects of a Payment Disruption Across Other Critical Infrastructures: Lessons Learned in 15 Simulation-Games
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. University of Skövde, Informatics Research Environment. (Informationssystem, Information Systems (IS))ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0488-6841
Linköping University, Sweden.
Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall, Sweden.
Combitech, Linköping, Sweden.
2020 (English)In: Critical Information Infrastructures Security: 14th International Conference, CRITIS 2019, Linköping, Sweden, September 23–25, 2019, Revised Selected Papers / [ed] Simin Nadjm-Tehrani, Cham: Springer, 2020, p. 110-121Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A disruption in one critical infrastructure can quickly lead to cascading effects in several other ones. Much research has been done to analyze dependencies between different critical infrastructures, but little is known about how to mitigate escalation and cascading effects across several critical infrastructures, i.e. how to develop collective critical infrastructure resilience. This research presents the results of 15 simulation-games where groups of 6 to 8 field experts from different sectors were challenged to collaboratively manage a disruption in the payment system that quickly affected food distribution, fuel distribution, transport, health care et cetera. Teams discussed possible strategies, which next were implemented in a computer simulation. Teams could influence the sequence of events on 4 decision points during a 10 day scenario, and play the same scenario several times to test alternative solutions. Each simulation-game session lasted a full day. Data analysis involved the recorded team discussions as well as computer simulation logs of the implemented decisions and their impacts. The results show how escalation and the severity of cascading effects largely depends on the quality of the early crisis response and not so much on the initial disruption. Also, it is shown how cross sectorial collaboration is required. Responses where groups focus too much on cascading effects in one area lead too poor overall performance for society at large. Groups tend to overbalance their mitigating strategies initially, until they arrive at a more balanced strategy that covers challenges in several different critical infrastructures from an integral perspective.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham: Springer, 2020. p. 110-121
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743, E-ISSN 1611-3349 ; 11777
Keywords [en]
Critical infrastructures, Resilience, Gaming-simulation, Cross-sectorial collaboration
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects Information Systems
Research subject
Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-18203DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-37670-3_9Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85077503830ISBN: 978-3-030-37669-7 (print)ISBN: 978-3-030-37670-3 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-18203DiVA, id: diva2:1392879
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2016-3046
Note

Also part of the Security and Cryptology book sub series (LNSC, volume 11777). This research was supported by Grant 2016-3046 of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency.

Available from: 2020-02-13 Created: 2020-02-13 Last updated: 2020-02-13Bibliographically approved

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van Laere, Joeri

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