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Niklasson, Lars
Publications (10 of 74) Show all publications
Erlandsson, T. & Niklasson, L. (2015). An Air-to-Ground Combat Survivability Model. Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 12(3), 273-287
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An Air-to-Ground Combat Survivability Model
2015 (English)In: Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, ISSN 1557-380X, Vol. 12, no 3, p. 273-287Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A survivability model can be a useful component of a tactical support system able to aid fighter pilots to assess the risk of getting hit by enemy fire from ground-based threats. This work identifies three desirable properties of such a model: it should allow for evaluating actions; it should enable domain experts to incorporate their knowledge; and it should represent uncertainties both regarding the locations of the threats as well as their future actions. A survivability model issuggested, which calculates the probability that the aircraft can fly a route unharmed and allows for routes of different lengths to be compared. A domain expert can describe the threats by specifying the risk of getting hit at a position of the route without having to consider the earlier actions of the aircraft and the threats. Three different threat models are suggested and compared. The influence of uncertainties regarding the positions of the threats is studied by calculating the probability density function for the survivability. Different representations that take into account both the uncertainty regarding the present and future situation are discussed. The results indicate that the suggested survivability model could be a useful component of a future tactical support system, even though some further development is needed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2015
Keyword
survivability model, fighter aircraft, tactical support system, uncertainty, ground-based threats
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology; Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-8372 (URN)10.1177/1548512913484399 (DOI)000367550200006 ()2-s2.0-84942866246 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2013-08-08 Created: 2013-08-08 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Erlandsson, T. & Niklasson, L. (2014). Automatic evaluation of air mission routes with respect to combat survival. Information Fusion, 20, 88-98
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Automatic evaluation of air mission routes with respect to combat survival
2014 (English)In: Information Fusion, ISSN 1566-2535, E-ISSN 1872-6305, Vol. 20, p. 88-98Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Aircraft flying in hostile environments are exposed to ground-based air defense systems. It is not always possible to both accomplish the mission and fly outside the range of the enemy's weapon systems, especially if the positions of the enemy's systems are not perfectly known. Automatic evaluation of mission routes from a combat survival perspective could therefore aid the pilots to plan their missions. When updated information regarding the positions and capabilities of the enemy's systems is received during flight, the route could be re-evaluated and the mission could be re-planed or aborted if it is assessed to be too dangerous. The survivability model presented here describes the relation between the aircraft and the enemy's defense systems. It calculates the probabilities that the aircraft is in certain modes along the route, e.g., undetected, tracked or hit. Contrary to previous work, the model is able to capture that the enemy's systems can communicate and that the enemy must track the aircraft before firing a weapon. The survivability model is used to calculate an expected cost for the mission route. The expected cost has the attractive properties of summarizing the route into a single value and is able to take the pilot's risk attitude for the mission into account. The evaluation of the route is influenced by uncertainty regarding the locations of the enemy's sensors and weapons. Monte Carlo simulations are used to capture this uncertainty by calculating the mean and standard deviation for the expected cost. These two parameters give the pilots an assessment of the danger associated with the route as well as the reliability of this assessment. The paper concludes that evaluating routes with the survivability model and the expected cost could aid the pilots to plan and execute their missions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-14134 (URN)10.1016/j.inffus.2013.12.001 (DOI)000337863500010 ()2-s2.0-84901591357 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2017-09-20 Created: 2017-09-20 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Erlandsson, T. & Niklasson, L. (2013). Comparing Air Mission Routes from a Combat Survival Perspective. In: Chutima Boonthum-Denecke and G. Michael Youngblood (Ed.), Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference: . Paper presented at Twenty-Sixth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference (FLAIRS-13) (pp. 58-63). AAAI Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Comparing Air Mission Routes from a Combat Survival Perspective
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference / [ed] Chutima Boonthum-Denecke and G. Michael Youngblood, AAAI Press, 2013, p. 58-63Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

An aircraft flying inside hostile territory is exposed to the risk of getting detected and tracked by the enemy’s sensors,  and  subsequently  hit  by  its  weapons.  This paper  describes  a  combat  survivability  model  that can be used for assessing the risks associated with a mission route. In contrast to previous work, the model describes both the risk of getting tracked and the risk of getting hit, as well as the dependency between these risks.  Three  different  ways  of  using  the  model  for comparing routes from a combat survival perspective are  suggested.  The  survivability  for  the  end  point, i.e., the probability of flying the entire route without getting hit, is a compact way of summarizing the risks. Visualizing  how  the  risks  vary  along  the  route  can be  used  for  identifying  critical  parts  of  the  mission. Finally, assigning weights to different risks allow the opportunity to take preferences regarding risk exposure into account.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AAAI Press, 2013
Keyword
Survivability, Air mission, Markov model, Route planning, Fighter aircraft, Unmanned aerial vehicle
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-8375 (URN)2-s2.0-84889812582 (Scopus ID)
Conference
Twenty-Sixth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference (FLAIRS-13)
Available from: 2013-08-09 Created: 2013-08-08 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Erlandsson, T. & Niklasson, L. (2013). Threat Assessment for Missions in Hostile Territory - From the Aircraft Perspective. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on information fusion (FUSION 2013): . Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Information Fusion 2013, Askeri Museum Harbiye, Istanbul, 9-12 July 2013 (pp. 1856-1862). IEEE Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Threat Assessment for Missions in Hostile Territory - From the Aircraft Perspective
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on information fusion (FUSION 2013), IEEE Press, 2013, p. 1856-1862Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE Press, 2013
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-8552 (URN)2-s2.0-84890853301 (Scopus ID)978-605-86311-1-3 (ISBN)
Conference
16th International Conference on Information Fusion 2013, Askeri Museum Harbiye, Istanbul, 9-12 July 2013
Available from: 2013-10-18 Created: 2013-10-18 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Erlandsson, T. & Niklasson, L. (2012). Calculating Uncertainties in Situation Analysis for Fighter Aircraft Combat Survivability. In: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2012). Paper presented at 15th International Conference on Information Fusion, FUSION 2012; Singapore; 7 September 2012 through 12 September 2012 (pp. 196-203). IEEE Computer Society
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Calculating Uncertainties in Situation Analysis for Fighter Aircraft Combat Survivability
2012 (English)In: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2012), IEEE Computer Society, 2012, p. 196-203Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The aim of situation analysis is to assess the relevant objects in the surroundings and interpret their relations and their impact in order for a decision maker to achieve situation awareness and be able to make suitable decisions. However, the information regarding the relevant objects is typically uncertain, which will induce uncertainty in the result from the situation analysis. If the kinematic states of the objects are estimated with a tracking filter, the estimates can be considered as random variables. Furthermore, the situation analysis algorithm is a function of these estimates entailing that the result from the situation analysis is random variable. This paper studies the fighter aircraft domain and a situation analysis algorithm that calculates the combat survivability, i.e., the probability that the aircraft can a fly a route inside hostile territory without getting hit by enemy fire. The survivability of different routes can be compared in order to decide where to fly. However, the uncertainties regarding the threats' positions imply that the survivability is uncertain and can be desribed as a random variable with a distribution. The unscented transform (UT) is here used for calculating the mean and standard deviation (std) of the survivability in a few scenarios with threats located on the ground. Simulations show that the position uncertainties affect both the mean and std of the survivability and that UT gives similar estimates as a Monte Carlo (MC) approach. UT therefore seems to be a promising approach for calculating the uncertainty in the survivability, which is more computational efficient than MC.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE Computer Society, 2012
Keyword
Situation analysis, uncertainty, unscented transform, figher aircraft, survivability
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-6589 (URN)2-s2.0-84867658199 (Scopus ID)978-0-9824438-4-2 (ISBN)978-0-9824438-5-9 (ISBN)
Conference
15th International Conference on Information Fusion, FUSION 2012; Singapore; 7 September 2012 through 12 September 2012
Available from: 2012-10-31 Created: 2012-10-31 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Alklind Taylor, A.-S., Backlund, P. & Niklasson, L. (2012). The Coaching Cycle: A Coaching-by-Gaming Approach in Serious Games. Journal Simulation & Gaming, 43(5), 648-672
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Coaching Cycle: A Coaching-by-Gaming Approach in Serious Games
2012 (English)In: Journal Simulation & Gaming, ISSN 1046-8781, E-ISSN 1552-826X, Vol. 43, no 5, p. 648-672Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Military organizations have a long history of using simulations, role-play, and games for training. This also encompasses good practices concerning how instructors utilize games and gaming behavior. Unfortunately, the work of instructors is rarely described explicitly in research relating to serious gaming. Decision makers also tend to have overconfidence in the pedagogical power of games and simulations, particularly where the instructor is taken out of the gaming loop. The authors propose a framework, the coaching cycle, that focuses on the roles of instructors. The roles include instructors acting as game players. The fact that the instructors take a more active part in all training activities will further improve learning. The coaching cycle integrates theories of experiential learning (where action precedes theory) and deliberate practice (where the trainee's skill is constantly challenged by a coach). Incorporating a coaching-by-gaming perspective complicates, but also strengthens, the player-centered design approach to game development in that we need to take into account two different types of players: trainees and instructor. Furthermore, the authors argue that the coaching cycle allows for a shift of focus to a more thorough debriefing, because it implies that learning of theoretical material before simulation/game playing is kept to a minimum. This shift will increase the transfer of knowledge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2012
Keyword
after action review, coaching by gaming, coaching cycle, debriefing, deliberate practice, experiential learning, formative feedback, game-based training, instructor roles, player-centered, puckstering, seroius games, summative feedback, teacher player, teacher roles
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-6923 (URN)10.1177/1046878112439442 (DOI)2-s2.0-84868324886 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2012-12-18 Created: 2012-12-18 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Erlandsson, T., Niklasson, L., Nordlund, P.-J. & Warston, H. (2011). Modeling Fighter Aircraft Mission Survivability. In: Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2011): . Paper presented at 14th International Conference on Information Fusion, Fusion 2011; Chicago, IL; 5 July 2011 through 8 July 2011 (pp. 999-1006). IEEE conference proceedings
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling Fighter Aircraft Mission Survivability
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2011), IEEE conference proceedings, 2011, p. 999-1006Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A fighter aircraft flying a mission is often exposed to ground-based threats such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites. The fighter pilot needs to take actions to minimize the risk of being shot down, but at the same time be able to accomplish the mission. In this paper we propose a survivability model, which describes the probability that the aircraft will be able to fly a given route without being hit by incoming missiles. Input to this model can consist of sensor measurements collected during flight as well as intelligence data gathered before the mission. This input is by nature uncertain and we therefore investigate the influence of uncertainty in the input to the model. Finally we propose a number of decision support functions that can be developed based on the suggested model such as countermeasure management, mission planning and sensor management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE conference proceedings, 2011
Keyword
Survivability, fighter aircraft, decision support, threat model
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-5685 (URN)2-s2.0-80052553293 (Scopus ID)978-1-4577-0267-9 (ISBN)1-4577-0267-3 (ISBN)
Conference
14th International Conference on Information Fusion, Fusion 2011; Chicago, IL; 5 July 2011 through 8 July 2011
Available from: 2012-04-04 Created: 2012-04-04 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Gustavsson, P. M., Hieb, M. R., Moore, P., Eriksson, P. & Niklasson, L. (2011). Operations Intent and Effects Model. The Journal of Defence Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 8(1), 37-59
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Operations Intent and Effects Model
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2011 (English)In: The Journal of Defence Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, ISSN 1548-5129, E-ISSN 1557-380X, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 37-59Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Military missions in the 21st century are characterized by combinations of traditional symmetric conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and operations other than war. The inherent uncertainty in an actual mission and the variety of potential organizations (e.g. multi-agency, non-governmental, private volunteer, international, international corporations) from several countries that support the mission makes collaboration and co-ordination a key capability for command and control. The ability to communicate and automatically process intent and effects is vital in order for a commander to cooperate with other organizations and agencies and lead subordinates in such a way that the overall mission is completed in the best possible way, including exploitation of fleeting opportunities, i.e. enable for self-synchronization amongst teams and allow for subordinate initiatives. However, intent and effects are often absent in the current and forthcoming digitalized information models, and if intent and effects are present it is likely to be found that the representations are made as free-text fields based on natural language. However, such messages are very difficult to disambiguate, particularly for automated machine systems. The overall objective for the Operations Intent and Effects Model is to support operational and simulated systems by a conceptual intent and effects model and a formalism that is human and machine interpretable.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2011
Keyword
command and control, decision support, effects, intent, simulation
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-5176 (URN)10.1177/1548512910379477 (DOI)2-s2.0-84858982297 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2011-07-01 Created: 2011-07-01 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Erlandsson, T. & Niklasson, L. (2011). Uncertainty Measures for Sensor Management in a Survivability Application. In: Heiss, H-U., Pepper, P., Schlingloff, H. and Schneider, J. (Ed.), Informatik 2011: . Bonner Köller Verlag
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Uncertainty Measures for Sensor Management in a Survivability Application
2011 (English)In: Informatik 2011 / [ed] Heiss, H-U., Pepper, P., Schlingloff, H. and Schneider, J., Bonner Köller Verlag , 2011Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

When flying a mission, a fighter pilot is exposed to the risk of being hit by enemy fire. A tactical support system can aid the pilot by calculating the survivability of a given route, which is the probability that the fighter pilot can fly the route with-out being hit. The survivability estimate will be uncertain due to uncertainty in the information about threats in the area. In this paper, we investigate the uncertainty in the estimate of the survivability and compare two different measures of uncertainty; standard deviation and entropy. Furthermore, we discuss how these measures can be used for sensor management and discuss a few issues that need to be addressed in the design of a sensor management system in a fighter aircraft.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bonner Köller Verlag, 2011
Series
Lecture Notes in Informatics, LNI P-192, ISSN 1617-5478
Keyword
Survivability, uncertainty, sensor management, fighter aircraft
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-5638 (URN)978-3-88579-286-4 (ISBN)
Available from: 2012-03-27 Created: 2012-03-27 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Dahlbom, A., Niklasson, L. & Falkman, G. (2010). Attempting to increase the Performance of Petri net based Situation Recognition. In: Proceedings of the 22nd Benelux Conference on Artificial Intelligence: . Paper presented at 22nd Benelux Conference on Artificial Intelligence, BNAIC 2010; Kirchberg; 25 October 2010 through 26 October 2010. Benelux Association for Artificial Intelligence
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Attempting to increase the Performance of Petri net based Situation Recognition
2010 (Swedish)In: Proceedings of the 22nd Benelux Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Benelux Association for Artificial Intelligence , 2010Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Situation recognition is an important problem to solve for introducing new capabilities in surveillance applications. It is concerned with recognizing a priori defined situations of interest, which are characterized as being of temporal and concurrent nature. The purpose is to aid decision makers with focusing on information that is known to likely be important for them, given their goals. Besides the two most important problems: knowing what to recognize and being able to recognize it, there are three main problems coupled to real time recognition of situations. Computational complexity — we need to process data and information within bounded time. Tractability — human operators must be able to easily understand what is being modelled. Expressability — we must be able to express situations at suitable levels of abstraction. In this paper we attempt to lower the computational complexity of a Petri net based approach for situation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Benelux Association for Artificial Intelligence, 2010
Series
Belgian/Netherlands Artificial Intelligence Conference (BNAIC), ISSN 1568-7805
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-4713 (URN)2-s2.0-84874012985 (Scopus ID)
Conference
22nd Benelux Conference on Artificial Intelligence, BNAIC 2010; Kirchberg; 25 October 2010 through 26 October 2010
Available from: 2011-02-02 Created: 2011-02-02 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
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