Open this publication in new window or tab >>2023 (English)In: Proceedings 2023 Congress in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, & Applied Computing, CSCE 2023: Las Vegas, USA24-27 July 2023, IEEE, 2023, p. 1567-1573Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
Product returns are not only costly for e-tailers, but the unnecessary transports also impact the environment. Consequently, online retailers have started to formulate policies to reduce the number of returns. Determining when and how to act is, however, a delicate matter, since a too harsh approach may lead to not only the order being cancelled, but also the customer leaving the business. Being able to accurately predict which orders that will lead to a return would be a strong tool, guiding which actions to be taken. This paper addresses the problem of data-driven product return prediction, by conducting a case study using a large real-world data set. The main results are that well-calibrated probabilistic predictors are essential for providing predictions with high precision and reasonable recall. This implies that utilizing calibrated models to predict some instances, while rejecting to predict others can be recommended. In practice, this would make it possible for a decision-maker to only act upon a subset of all predicted returns, where the risk of a return is very high.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2023
Keywords
Product Returns, Decision Support, Probabilistic Predictions, Calibration, Predict with Reject Option.
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences Information Systems Probability Theory and Statistics Business Administration
Research subject
INF301 Data Science; Interaction Lab (ILAB)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:his:diva-23269 (URN)10.1109/CSCE60160.2023.00258 (DOI)2-s2.0-85191148521 (Scopus ID)979-8-3503-2760-1 (ISBN)979-8-3503-2759-5 (ISBN)979-8-3503-2758-8 (ISBN)
Conference
The 19th International Conference on Data Science (ICDATA’23), July 24-27, 2023 - Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Projects
INSiDR
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20160035Knowledge Foundation, 20170215
Note
©2023 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
This research is a part of the industrial graduate research school in digital retailing (INSiDR) at the University of Borås, funded by The Swedish Knowledge Foundation, grants nr. 20160035, 20170215.
2023-09-292023-09-292024-07-05Bibliographically approved